More on the Influenza...and on Obama

Classes in Mexico have been ordered to restart on May 7th for colleges and high schools, and on the 11th for elementary and junior high after a forced closure for sanitary reasons (you may want to read the post below). With this, and the opening of restaurants, etc. life is ging back to normal in Mexico (particularly in Mexico City). Nonetheless many schools have ordered their students to stay home if the feel any flu-like symptoms and to use surgical masks in their facilities. Apparently, Mexicans will have to learn to live with the swine flu (I insist its a joke to call it human influenza, as many Mexican media have begun to call it to avoid using the term refering to pigs or the more scientific term A/H1N1).

Fortunately, the alarm has gone down. People should not panic, they should only continue to follow the instructions that avoided its spread. Although at times annoying and exagerated, these measures are a small price to pay (if not, you may check the story on Manuel Camacho, a renowned polititan who seemingly caught the virus, check www.eluniversal.com.mx for coverage on this story and on the whole pandemic).

The virus is real. It's no coverup story for the legalisation of personal drug use in Mexico, it is not the new Chupacabras, it is any of these weird stories you may hear about on Facebook or Twitter. For instance, Google caught a significant rise in the searches for influenza related words in Mexico two weeks before the alarm was given. This usually happens because when people begin feeling the symptoms they search for them on the net.

And I'd like to comment on the first of the silly stories you hear on Facebook that I mentioned and with this pass to the second topic of this post, Obama. a week before the alarm on this new strain of influenza was give, President Obama visited Mexico, closing one of its hottest neighborhoods, Polanco. The allegation I read on Facebook was that he would have suggest the use of this flu as a story to avoid the headlines of the legalisation of the carrying of personal doses of drugs such as mariguana, cocaine, heroine, etc. and thus lessen the problem of drugtrafficking (we should keep in mind that El Chapo Guzmán -the most important druglord in Mexico, and ostensibly the world- is now one Forbes' richest men and one of Time's most influential leaders). Yes, drug use was depenalized in Mexico, but so far this reform has had (and will have) no impact on the power of druglords because it doesn't change incentives to move drugs in any case it encourages them to keep on doing buisness, but not to lower their prices; as long as the supply side remains as a black market operation, druglords will not lose their power.

On another issue, Obama has been US President for over 100 days. Is he doing well? Democrats in the US and left-winged intellectuals are extatic with his presidency. He has become a kind of JFK, an American President with whom everybody has fallen in love. To these people I say, watch the US government spending. The monetary supply has already more than doubled (seniorage) to cope with the government spending to help the country not fall into a bigger crisis. The flu epidemic has only brought, yes, more spending. If China should stop buying US bonds two great effects would hit the US economy: hyperinflation and a smaller aggreate demand, which would mean a smaller GDP. So Obama could be endangering the US economy, and could eventually not be remebered as a good-looking African American statesman but as the man that left the US broker than what it was. Nonehteless this is just my humble opinion.

Yes, I was wrong...Is it time to worry about the influenza?

As my friend Héctor well pointed out, by no means can we consider the latest events in Mexico a political stunt. Yes, I think it will help governing PAN in the intermidiate election, since voters tend to favor the status quo when it comes to dealing with crises (as for instance happened after September 11, 2001, when the Republican party got many more votes than originally expected) specially when the government is taking the correct actions towards dealing with it. Nonetheless, the flu pandemic is a reason to worry and has no politcal reason behind it.

Then spread of the swine flu (or the A/H1N1 influenza, as it is now becoming politically correct to call it) is no one's fault. Conservative US media have begun to think its spread in the US is the fault of Mexican illegal aliens. There is nothing more erred than this. In a globalized world (particularly flu) pandemics spread like never before (remember the avian flu?)

Mexico City, once one the most cosmopolitan cities in the world, once full of people, is now empty. Its once exhilarating nightlife is now shut down. Its restaurants are now closed. Its 18 million inhabitants are now confined to their homes. Expendable government agencies are now closed until May 6th (hospitals, gas stations, the police, and the army continue working). Schools are closed as well until May 6th (but probably until May 11). Not a soul in town. In Mexico this is a long weekend, because of labor day followed by 5 de mayo (the battle of Puebla holiday), buisnesses where asked to shut down during these days if they were able to.

WHO has raised its epidemic level to 5. This means the epidemic in now in more than 1 country. Is it time to worry? Its time to take action, no to panic. Government instructions to avoid the spread of the disease include, wearing a face mask, washing your hands constantly, avoid saying hi to people through a handshake or a kiss, etc. Please, if you're in Mexico or elsewhere, follow these easy instructions, they do no harm, and their just for a while. To avoid the spread of this strain of flu is our responsability.

Electoral stunts and other nice things about the political life

So, I haven't posted for a while, but I'm back. Back to say once again that Mexico is, to say the least, a very peculiar place. A place where the US president can come with 1000 marines and nothing is said about soverignty, but oil cannot be privatized because it would imply a loss of sovereignty. A place where a well respected professor becomes Secretary (in this case Education) and is now the strongest card for the next presidential election for ruling party, PAN.

And it is mostly on Lujambio's designation as Secretary of Public Education (SEP) and his action taking on his first days on the job that this post will be about. After being named to the cabinet, his political abilities were questioned (could he step up to La maestra Elba Esther Gordillo, or would he be a pushover for her?), as well as his well known friendship to President Calderón.

Just today classes (and along with them prueba ENLACE's application, which meassures school quality) were cancelled because of the spread of a porcine (made human) flu epidemic in Mexico City and in neighboring Mexico State. Is this an electoral stunt? Was it made to position Lujambio? Is it an electoral stunt for upcoming July's intermediate elections (and maybe take away the headlines from theever growing concern on drug traffic and security and to show that the Federal government is in charge of pressing situations)? Hopefully, only time will tell.

The US's fault?

According to Hillary Clinton the US is to blame for much of Mexico's violence?

http://www.reuters.com/article/vcCandidateFeed1/idUSN25429486

Is she right? Probably so, if the US could control its demand for drugs then probably Mexican druglord would not have the power they do. Moreover, drugs being a black (i.e. illegal) market present a great price markup from the marginal cost of producing them. If they were made legal then they could be regulated and drug lord would lose their monopolic power.

Maybe drug legalization should become an issue in both Mexican and US political agendas...

Makes you kinda think

Have you ever thought how much a million bucks looks like?

http://deliveriesgalore.com/2009/03/18/one-trillion-dollars/

its pretty interesting

Some more interesting books...

Sorry for not posting lately, but I've been pretty busy...

some books that although I've not been able to read but that sound pretty interesting are:

1. Predictably Irrational, Dan Ariely (on humans not being as rational as economic theory would predict?
2. In Pursuit of Happiness and Good Government, Charles Murray (this one's pretty old but seems really good - on how government may affect happiness, that if you've made a habit of reading this blog you may have realized is a topic that interests me very much)
3. Classical Liberalism: The Unvanquised Ideal, David Conway

I hope you enjoy them!

It's evolution, baby...

Such sings a song by Seattle rock band Pearl Jam: "It's evolution, baby..." Nowadays, the topic is getting a little bit trite, since this year we are celebrating Charles Darwin's 200th birthday and the 150th anniversary of the first publication of his most (in)famous book, The Origin of the Species; as well, world famous biologist Richard Dawkins has been campaining for evolution (and against intelligent design or creation) in the past few years.

I am a strong believer, and had always had had a hard time putting together evolution and creation, and I think that I've finally accomplished it. Here I must take a pause to thank my brother David for hours of illustrative discussion. So the necessary question is how?

As Economics Nobel laurate, Bob Aumann would say, human experience reality on several planes, each orthogonal to each other. Science is one of those planes, Religion is another. What we experience in science is basically not what we experience through religion. Each has is well delimited space. Science should not even attempt to ask itself about the ontology and axiology of things; it should not try to ask the question: "Does God exist?" It is outside its field of study. As well, Religion and Philosophy should not ask themselves for the scientific proof of things. Mixing pears and apples is not intellectualy honest. Here is where Dawkins erres, what AlvinPlantinga would call "The Dawkins Confusion".

Evolution and Creation are compatible. Evolution (despite its many flaws) is the best scientific model we have to explain the way the different species came to be. Creation is a matter of faith. So we shouldn't sit down to endless discussions of whether we evolved or came from Adam, each in its own field are good explanations.