martes, 5 de mayo de 2009

More on the Influenza...and on Obama

Classes in Mexico have been ordered to restart on May 7th for colleges and high schools, and on the 11th for elementary and junior high after a forced closure for sanitary reasons (you may want to read the post below). With this, and the opening of restaurants, etc. life is ging back to normal in Mexico (particularly in Mexico City). Nonetheless many schools have ordered their students to stay home if the feel any flu-like symptoms and to use surgical masks in their facilities. Apparently, Mexicans will have to learn to live with the swine flu (I insist its a joke to call it human influenza, as many Mexican media have begun to call it to avoid using the term refering to pigs or the more scientific term A/H1N1).

Fortunately, the alarm has gone down. People should not panic, they should only continue to follow the instructions that avoided its spread. Although at times annoying and exagerated, these measures are a small price to pay (if not, you may check the story on Manuel Camacho, a renowned polititan who seemingly caught the virus, check www.eluniversal.com.mx for coverage on this story and on the whole pandemic).

The virus is real. It's no coverup story for the legalisation of personal drug use in Mexico, it is not the new Chupacabras, it is any of these weird stories you may hear about on Facebook or Twitter. For instance, Google caught a significant rise in the searches for influenza related words in Mexico two weeks before the alarm was given. This usually happens because when people begin feeling the symptoms they search for them on the net.

And I'd like to comment on the first of the silly stories you hear on Facebook that I mentioned and with this pass to the second topic of this post, Obama. a week before the alarm on this new strain of influenza was give, President Obama visited Mexico, closing one of its hottest neighborhoods, Polanco. The allegation I read on Facebook was that he would have suggest the use of this flu as a story to avoid the headlines of the legalisation of the carrying of personal doses of drugs such as mariguana, cocaine, heroine, etc. and thus lessen the problem of drugtrafficking (we should keep in mind that El Chapo Guzmán -the most important druglord in Mexico, and ostensibly the world- is now one Forbes' richest men and one of Time's most influential leaders). Yes, drug use was depenalized in Mexico, but so far this reform has had (and will have) no impact on the power of druglords because it doesn't change incentives to move drugs in any case it encourages them to keep on doing buisness, but not to lower their prices; as long as the supply side remains as a black market operation, druglords will not lose their power.

On another issue, Obama has been US President for over 100 days. Is he doing well? Democrats in the US and left-winged intellectuals are extatic with his presidency. He has become a kind of JFK, an American President with whom everybody has fallen in love. To these people I say, watch the US government spending. The monetary supply has already more than doubled (seniorage) to cope with the government spending to help the country not fall into a bigger crisis. The flu epidemic has only brought, yes, more spending. If China should stop buying US bonds two great effects would hit the US economy: hyperinflation and a smaller aggreate demand, which would mean a smaller GDP. So Obama could be endangering the US economy, and could eventually not be remebered as a good-looking African American statesman but as the man that left the US broker than what it was. Nonehteless this is just my humble opinion.

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